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We've another busy afternoon in shop with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle.
The Betway Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four Alive races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out once more up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that'due south run over 4m1f. And so downward at Lingfield the All Atmospheric condition racing fans get their fix with a top-notch carte du jour that includes the Grouping 3 Wintertime Derby.
Then, equally always, nosotros've got it all covered hither at JUICESTORM with all the central trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we're confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the all-time contour of past winners – So, let's get going!
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Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV)
1.50 – Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Class 2) Cl1 2m ITV
16/17 – Priced eight/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Placed in the peak iii final time out
fourteen/17 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the U.k.
13/17 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
13/17 – Placed favourites
xiii/17 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/17– Won conveying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
10/17 – Won concluding time out
9/17 – Winning favourites
seven/17 – French bred
5/17 – Irish gaelic bred
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Trained past Alan King (won two of last 4 runnings)
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
iii/17 – Winners that went onto win that season'due south Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season'south Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
JUICESTORM VERDICT: This can go to the heady KNIGHT SALUTE, who heads here having won all four starts over hurdles. Trained by Milton Harris, just you feel that if he were housed by one of the big yards would be getting fifty-fifty more attending. The last of those wins was a ¾ of a length beating of Porticello, who franked the form last weekend with an like shooting fish in a barrel win at Haydock. A win hither and connections might be tempted for the Triumph Hurdle or Boodles Juvenile Hurdle, who he has entries in both. Of the rest, he can fright well-nigh from Impulsive One, from the Nicky Henderson g, who is rated 7lbs inferior to the selection. Also the Paul Nicholls runner – Pleasant Human – could exist the fly in the ointment for the selection. A useful 90+ rated flat performer when trained past Roger Charlton (3 wins from 9) and if taking to the sticks could be a nice recruit for the Ditcheat army camp. Graystone, Iroko and Moka De Vassy can practice best of the residuum.
2.25 – Coral Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV
14/16 – French (8) of Irish (6) bred
13/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/16 – Returned five/two or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Finished 1st or twond last time out
11/xvi – Aged half dozen or 7 years-old
11/16 – Ran in the terminal 5 weeks
10/16 – Trained past Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 11)
9/16 – Had won between i-2 times over fences before
8/16 – Won last fourth dimension out
8/xvi – Winning favourites
JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls camp have been a scrap in-and-out in recent weeks, just this is a race they love to target – winning the pot 7 times in the last 11 years. With that in mind, their PIC D'ORHY is worth siding with despite a heavy defeat at Sandown last fourth dimension out. That said, he did run into the improving L'Homme Presse that mean solar day so the run in a few weeks might not actually look that bad if that horse wins at Cheltenham. Before that though the Nicholls horse had won well at Ascot in a Class Two and if back in that sort of form would be the one to beat here. Minella Drama is rated 7lbs lower than the pick and then needs to find a chip more. Millers Bank is useful, merely two recent unseats would be the worry for this one. Goa Lil has a lot to discover at the weights, then the danger pikestaff come up from FANTASTIC LADY, from the Nicky Henderson yard. This 7 twelvemonth-old is rated 17lbs lower than Pic D'Orhy but gets a handy 12lbs off the Nicholls horse then doesn't take much improvement to fine. She'southward also won her final two well which suggests there is every chance she will accept more than to offer.
3.00 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV
14/fifteen – Ran inside the terminal 6 weeks
fourteen/15 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
13/xv – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
thirteen/fifteen – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
12/15 – Won between 0-two times over hurdles before
12/xv – Came from the pinnacle iii in the betting
10/xv – Placed favourites
10/15 – Anile either 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Won final time out
vi/xv – Went onto run at that season's Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
v/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – French bred
4/fifteen – Trained by Alan Rex
4/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Notation: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
JUICESTORM VERDICT: This race has been won 11 times in the final 15 years past the Alan Rex, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson yards. No runner for Alan King this year though, simply Henderson has Russian Ruler, while Nicholls saddles Iceo. Both are accept to be respected with the good stable records in the race, but they might have to play 2d dabble to the Gary Moore runner – SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE. This 5 year-old improved on his Tolworth Hurdle fourth in January to bolt-upwards at Sandown before this calendar month and a echo of that run would see him difficult to beat out. He's also a form winner here at Kempton when taking a NH Flat race back in March 21. Of the residual, Frere D'Armes and Moriko De Vassy are feared, but the danger can come from AUCUNRISQUE, who represents the Chris Gordon team. This 6 yr-old has won his final two by 7 and x lengths and with just 3 runs over the sticks will have more to come.
3.37 – Coral Trophy Chase Chase (Handicap) (Form 3) Cl1 3m ITV
16/19 – Finished in the acme 5 last time out
16/19 – Aged 9 or younger
sixteen/19 – Rated 139 or college
14/19 – Had raced inside the last 8 weeks
13/xix – Won a Class ii hunt or better before
13/xix – Carried 10-xiii or more than
13/xix – Returned 9/ane or shorter in the betting
13/xix – Winning distance – two lengths or more
12/19 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/19 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/nineteen – Rated betwixt 139 and 150
10/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/19 – Carried 11-5 or more
8/19 – Had won at least four times over fences before
seven/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Aged eight years-old
5/19 – French bred
4/nineteen – Winners that went onto run in that season's Grand National (all unplaced)
4/19 – Raced at Cheltenham final time out
4/xix – Winners that went onto run at that season'southward Cheltenham Festival (one winner)
3/xix – Ridden past Paddy Brennan
three/19 – Trained by Tom George
2/19 – Winning favourites (one articulation)
ii/19 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/19 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 5)
ii/nineteen – Trained by Colin Tizzard (won 2 of the concluding 5)
ii/19 – Trained past Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/19 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The boilerplate winning SP in the terminal 10 runnings is 10/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park
JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 16 of the last 19 winners aged nine or younger this is not adept news for the 10 twelvemonth-old Lalor. We've also seen the same most of winners in the last 19 runnings placed in the top five in their last race – so this would be a plus for most of the runners barring Zanza, Enrilo, Lalor and Kitty's Low-cal. 13 of the terminal 19 winners also carried 10st 13lbs or more, so this might be seen as a negative for Our Power, Five Star Getaway, Galahad Quest, Zhiguli, Beakstown and Cap Du Nord. And then, taking those trends into account that leaves us with four of the top 7 on the card – Adept Male child Bobby, The Big Breakaway, Phoenix Way and Annsam. Of that quartet, the two I like are ANNSAM and THE BIG BREAKAWAY. The starting time-named beat Phoenix Way by 4 1/24 lengths at Ascot last time out and a 6lb ascent for that looks fair. Yes, there is small swing in the racing weights this time, just it'southward but 3lbs. I likewise feel that Annsam, who has only had 5 career runs, will accept more improvement to come, particularly over this 3m trip. The Big Breakaway represents the Colin Tizzard chiliad that have won this race twice in the last five years. He's non actually kicked on every bit many thought, simply from vii runs over fences has only been out of the pinnacle three twice. Simply the ane win but 3 runs back he was in the procedure of running well behind Bravemansgame at Newbury when falling late on. Yes, he would have probably finished second that solar day, but with the winner franking the form many times since it was still a top run. He's since had a wind op and returned from that last fourth dimension to run a close third. The cheekpieces are also on for the first time here, which is another reason to suggest he could discover a bit more from somewhere.
Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV)
3.fifteen – Vertem Eider Handicap Hunt Cl2 4m1f ITV
17/17 – Had won over at least 3m earlier
15/17 – Aged 10 or younger
14/17 – Carried ten-thirteen or more than
14/17 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had raced within the final 6 weeks
12/17 – Winning distance – four lengths or less
11/17 – Irish-bred
eleven/17 – Winners came from the top iii in the betting
11/17 – Placed in the height 4 concluding time out
11/17 – Officially rated between 131-140
11/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-former
ix/17 – Placed favourites
five/17 – Won final time out
5/17 – Won over 3m4f or farther before
3/17 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/17 – Winning favourites
two/17 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/i
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Stamina will exist the order of the day hither, over this 4m1f trip, while with xv of the final 17 winners aged 10 or younger this would be a negative for the older horses in the race – Achille, Potters Corner, Lake View Lad and Gwencily Berbos. fourteen of the last 17 winners also carried 10st 13lbs or more than, which is most fit the neb – but it even so allows united states of america to put a potential negative line through Gwencily Berbos, History Of Way, Court Master, Just Your Type, Cash To Ash, Danilo D'Airy and Strong Economy. It'due south been the 8 and ix year-olds that have the best record in the race recently – winning eleven of the last 17. Irish gaelic raider, History Of Fashion has been pop in the betting all calendar week and could easily go off favourite after a prissy eight length win at Down Royal final time, merely is up 11lbs for that. Domaine De Fifty'Isle, Danilo D'Airy and Checkitout are others you can make cases for. Cash To Ash loves to finish second – he's picked up iv silver medals in the last 4 runs! But that tells united states he'due south a consistent sort and is as well versatile in terms of trip – having won over 3m and also ran a close second in the Scottish Borders National at Kelso in December. With just 10st 7lbs he can go well also. But the two nosotros'll be siding with here are ÉCLAIR SURF and RATH AN LUIR (due east/w). The one-time bolted up in the Classic Chase at Warwick concluding time out and seemed to love the step up to 3m 5f that day. Yes, he's got another 4 furlongs to become here and is upward 10lbs in the ratings for that, only has had a overnice break (42 days) to get over that twenty-four hour period and run some other solid race. Rath An Luir would have needed the run last fourth dimension at Ayr equally that came off a 399-mean solar day break. Prior to that at the terminate of 2020 he won twice at Carlisle and is dorsum here merely 2lbs higher than the terminal of those wins. He's a course winner as well that volition dearest the soft footing and despite his age (ix) is very lightly-raced with only vii career runs.
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV)
i.xxx – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV
12/14 – Rated 96+
12/14 – Returned eight/one or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had raced at Lingfield before
10/xiv – Finished 1st or twond last fourth dimension out
ten/14 – Anile 4 or v years-erstwhile
ix/14 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/14 – Placed favs
eight/14 – Ran at Lingfield concluding fourth dimension out
4/fourteen – Us bred
five/xiv – Winning favourites
5/14 – Mare winners
3/14 – Trained by David Barron
0/xiv – Winners from stall 1
Lord Riddiford won the race in 2021
Hareem Queen won the race in 2020
Majestic Birth won the race in 2017
JUICESTORM VERDICT: One Night Stand will make a bold bid back at his love Lingfield – a track he's won twice at before – with Hollie Doyle a adept jockey booking for the Scott Dixon stable. But he's rated around 7lbs and 9lbs inferior to the primary players here – Exalted Angel, Lord Riddiford, Mondammej and Tone The Barone. Of that agglomeration Lord Riddiford, who won this race 12 months ago, and Tone The Barone are proven CD winners and should not exist far away, while Mondammej is respected besides but it'southward worth noting he's never races hither at Lingfield before – 10 of the terminal fourteen winners had! So, the pick is the Karl Shush runner EXALTED ANGEL, who will be better for a contempo run here at Lingfield after a small break. Yep, he was backside Mondammej at Wolves dorsum in November only was having to give that equus caballus 8lbs that day and was only browbeaten 1 ½ lengths. Off level weights here today things should be dissimilar. Draw 3 is also a plus and he'southward a proven course winner.
2.05 – Betway Wintertime Derby (All-Weather condition Title Fast-Rail Qualifier) (Group iii) Cl1 1m2f ITV
17/xix – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
16/19 – Won by a horse aged half dozen or younger
15/nineteen – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market place
fifteen/19 – Had run at Lingfield previously
15/19 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
xv/nineteen – Had raced at either Lingfield (11) or Kempton (4) last time out
thirteen/19 – Winning distance – less than a length
13/19 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
13/19 – Came from the top 3 in the market
thirteen/19 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/nineteen – Placed in their last race
12/xix – Won at Lingfield previously
11/19 – Won their last race
nine/xix – Won at least 6 times previously
8/nineteen – Winning favourites
4/nineteen – Ridden past Frankie Dettori (two of last iii runnings)
3/xix – Trained by John Gosden (last iii runnings)
2/19 – Ridden past Andrea Atzeni (2 of concluding nine)
2/xix – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of terminal vii)
Simply 2 of the last fifteen Wintertime Derby Trial winners take gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 19 renewals is 11/two
JUICESTORM VERDICT: A race the John Gosden m have won for the last three years, including 12 months ago with Wood Of Dean, who is back for more. However, they too run the 123-rated LORD Due north and being that he'south rated 16lbs college than his stablemate so he's the grade act in here and will take the beating. Not been out since winning a Grouping One in Meydan, but has gone well fresh in the past and dropping into a Group Three will make things easier on this return anyway. Fancy Homo, Al Zaragaan and King Of The South are all horses with place claims, but the articulate second pick is the 115-rated Alenquer. Top marks to the Haggas yard for taking on Gosden here with this old Group Two winner. He was last seen running 9th in the Prix de 50'Arc de Triomphe last October and before that was 2d in the Grouping I Juddmonte International at York. He is a useful heart-distance filly and can make the pick work for this.
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